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Mbabane Swallows vs Vovovo — Premier League 2020

Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
FT
2 – 2
Vovovo
Vovovo
11/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mbabane Swallows46%
×Draw26%
Vovovo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbabane Swallows
1.44
Vovovo
1.05

Mbabane Swallows creates 37% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows
1.74
Vovovo
1.40

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows
0.71
Vovovo
1.13

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par
Vovovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Vovovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw
72%
Mbabane Swallows or Vovovo
74%
Draw or Vovovo
54%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
22%
Vovovo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
76%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
42%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
18%
Vovovo 1+ goals
65%
Vovovo 2+ goals
28%
Vovovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
63%
Vovovo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Vovovo away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Vovovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vovovo attack 1.40 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more
46%
level
26%
Vovovo scores more
28%

Mbabane Swallows at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mbabane Swallows 2–2 Vovovo

Mbabane Swallows and Vovovo drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.