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Mbabane Swallows vs Tambuti — Premier League 2020

Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
FT
2 – 0
Tambuti
Tambuti
11/27/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Mbabane Swallows60%
×Draw23%
Tambuti17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbabane Swallows
1.81
Tambuti
0.84

Mbabane Swallows creates 115% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 41 away

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows
1.74
Tambuti
0.98

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows
0.71
Tambuti
1.88

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par
Tambuti+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Tambuti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw
83%
Mbabane Swallows or Tambuti
77%
Draw or Tambuti
40%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
35%
Tambuti wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
84%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
54%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
27%
Tambuti 1+ goals
57%
Tambuti 2+ goals
21%
Tambuti 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
78%
Tambuti (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Tambuti away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Tambuti defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tambuti attack 0.98 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more
60%
level
23%
Tambuti scores more
17%

Mbabane Swallows at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Mbabane Swallows 2–0 Tambuti

Mbabane Swallows beat Tambuti 2-0 in Premier League on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.