Mbabane Swallows 3–0 Milling Hotspurs

Mbabane Swallows

FT

3 – 0

Milling Hotspurs

4/2/2021

Premier League · Round 2King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mbabane Swallows57%

×Draw25%

Milling Hotspurs18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mbabane SwallowsExpected goals in this matchMilling Hotspurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.77

Mbabane Swallows

1.58

Milling Hotspurs

0.77

Mbabane Swallows creates 105% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 30 away

1.74

creates per match

0.83

0.71

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows

1.74

Milling Hotspurs

0.83

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows

0.71

Milling Hotspurs

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Milling Hotspurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw

82%

Mbabane Swallows or Milling Hotspurs

75%

Draw or Milling Hotspurs

43%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+

30%

Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals

79%

Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals

47%

Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals

21%

Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals

54%

Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals

18%

Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)

76%

Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Milling Hotspurs away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.58

Milling Hotspurs attack 0.83 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more

57%

level

25%

Milling Hotspurs scores more

18%

Mbabane Swallows at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff