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Mbabane Swallows vs Manzini Sea Birds — Premier League 2020

Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manzini Sea Birds
Manzini Sea Birds
9/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mbabane Swallows54%
×Draw25%
Manzini Sea Birds21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbabane Swallows
1.63
Manzini Sea Birds
0.92

Mbabane Swallows creates 77% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows
1.74
Manzini Sea Birds
1.14

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows
0.71
Manzini Sea Birds
1.51

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par
Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Manzini Sea Birds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw
79%
Mbabane Swallows or Manzini Sea Birds
75%
Draw or Manzini Sea Birds
46%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
29%
Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
80%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
48%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
22%
Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals
60%
Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals
23%
Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
72%
Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Manzini Sea Birds away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.14 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more
54%
level
25%
Manzini Sea Birds scores more
21%

Mbabane Swallows at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbabane Swallows vs Manzini Sea Birds

Mbabane Swallows beat Manzini Sea Birds 2-0 in Premier League on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Mayaluka Stadium in Mayaluka.