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Mbabane Swallows vs Green Mamba — Premier League 2020

Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Green Mamba
Green Mamba
10/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Mbabane Swallows41%
×Draw28%
Green Mamba31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbabane Swallows
1.30
Green Mamba
1.10

Mbabane Swallows creates 18% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows
1.74
Green Mamba
1.49

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows
0.71
Green Mamba
0.86

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par
Green Mamba+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Green Mamba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw
69%
Mbabane Swallows or Green Mamba
72%
Draw or Green Mamba
59%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
19%
Green Mamba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
73%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
37%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
14%
Green Mamba 1+ goals
67%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
30%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
57%
Green Mamba (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Green Mamba away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Green Mamba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.30

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more
41%
level
28%
Green Mamba scores more
31%

Mbabane Swallows at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbabane Swallows vs Green Mamba

Mbabane Swallows beat Green Mamba 1-0 in Premier League on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.