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Mbabane Swallows vs Ezulwini United — Premier League 2020

Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
FT
1 – 0
Ezulwini United
Ezulwini United
9/25/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Mbabane Swallows49%
×Draw27%
Ezulwini United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbabane Swallows
1.43
Ezulwini United
0.91

Mbabane Swallows creates 57% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 41 away

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows
1.74
Ezulwini United
1.10

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows
0.71
Ezulwini United
1.12

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par
Ezulwini United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Ezulwini United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw
76%
Mbabane Swallows or Ezulwini United
73%
Draw or Ezulwini United
51%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
24%
Ezulwini United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
76%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
42%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
17%
Ezulwini United 1+ goals
60%
Ezulwini United 2+ goals
23%
Ezulwini United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
67%
Ezulwini United (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Ezulwini United away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Ezulwini United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ezulwini United attack 1.10 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more
49%
level
27%
Ezulwini United scores more
24%

Mbabane Swallows at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbabane Swallows vs Ezulwini United

Mbabane Swallows beat Ezulwini United 1-0 in Premier League on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.