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Mbabane Swallows vs Black Swallows — Premier League 2020

Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
FT
4 – 1
Black Swallows
Black Swallows
6/16/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mbabane Swallows65%
×Draw22%
Black Swallows14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbabane Swallows
1.87
Black Swallows
0.72

Mbabane Swallows creates 160% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mbabane Swallows
1.74
Black Swallows
0.73

allows per match

Mbabane Swallows
0.71
Black Swallows
2.00

finishing

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par
Black Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbabane Swallows ↓

Black Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mbabane Swallows or draw
86%
Mbabane Swallows or Black Swallows
78%
Draw or Black Swallows
35%

Winning margin

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
39%
Black Swallows wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
85%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
56%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
29%
Black Swallows 1+ goals
51%
Black Swallows 2+ goals
16%
Black Swallows 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
82%
Black Swallows (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbabane Swallows at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.71 · 85 matches

Black Swallows away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.74 + Black Swallows defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.87

Black Swallows attack 0.73 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mbabane Swallows scores more
65%
level
22%
Black Swallows scores more
14%

Mbabane Swallows at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbabane Swallows vs Black Swallows

Mbabane Swallows beat Black Swallows 4-1 in Premier League on June 16, 2021.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.