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Mazatlán vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Mazatlán
Mazatlán
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Necaxa
Necaxa
R. Monreal 45+4'
3/18/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 12Estadio de Mazatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán41%
×Draw25%
Necaxa34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazatlán
1.54
Necaxa
1.37

Mazatlán creates 12% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 139 away

creates per match

Mazatlán
1.37
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Mazatlán
1.47
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw
66%
Mazatlán or Necaxa
75%
Draw or Necaxa
59%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+
20%
Necaxa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals
79%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
45%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
20%
Necaxa 1+ goals
75%
Necaxa 2+ goals
40%
Necaxa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)
55%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mazatlán scores more
41%
level
25%
Necaxa scores more
34%

Mazatlán at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
B. GarnicaNecaxaNecaxa · M
8.0

Match Events

44'
A. Loba
45'
A. Pena
45+4'
R. Monreal↳ B. Garnica
56'
J. Colmán← B. Colula
57'
E. Orona← F. Venegas
64'
V. Poggi← R. Monreal
68'
M. Sansores← E. Bello
76'
J. Domínguez← B. Garnica
76'
F. Batista← Édgar Méndez
88'
E. Sánchez← R. Meraz
88'
O. Moreno← Y. Bárcenas
90+6'
J. Segovia
90+1'
R. Cortéz← F. Madrigal
90+1'
M. Silvera← D. Batallini

Possession

62%Mazatlán

Shots

9Mazatlán

Pass accuracy

55%Mazatlán

Statistics

MazatlánNecaxa
Overview
62%Possession38%
9Total Shots11
3Corners4
6Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots11
2On Target1
5Off Target9
2Blocked1
4Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
518Total Passes320
428Accurate Passes221
83%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Liga MX: Mazatlán 0–1 Necaxa

Necaxa beat Mazatlán 1-0 in Liga MX on March 18, 2023.

Goals: R. Monreal (45+4').

Mazatlán controlled possession (62%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio de Mazatlán in Mazatlán.