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Mazatlán vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Mazatlán
Mazatlán
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
3/2/2022Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 8Estadio de Mazatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán41%
×Draw25%
Necaxa34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazatlán
1.54
Necaxa
1.37

Mazatlán creates 12% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 139 away

creates per match

Mazatlán
1.37
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Mazatlán
1.47
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw
66%
Mazatlán or Necaxa
75%
Draw or Necaxa
59%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+
20%
Necaxa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals
79%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
45%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
20%
Necaxa 1+ goals
75%
Necaxa 2+ goals
40%
Necaxa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)
55%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mazatlán scores more
41%
level
25%
Necaxa scores more
34%

Mazatlán at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
N. VikonisMazatlánMazatlán · G
8.2

Match Events

13'
Fernando Madrigal
16'
Nicolás Benedetti
17'
Fabricio Formiliano
34'
Alonso Escoboza
47'
Nicolás Díaz
71'
B. Rubio← G. Sosa
71'
R. Meraz← N. Díaz
72'
Néstor Vidrio
77'
Brian García
77'
B. Colula← M. Sansores
80'
R. Aguirre← M. Giménez
80'
Á. Araos← F. Madrigal
81'
H. Jurado← L. García
85'
J. Zárate← I. Moreno
90+1'
A. López← D. Villalpando

Possession

47%Mazatlán

Shots

10Mazatlán

Pass accuracy

47%Mazatlán

Statistics

MazatlánNecaxa
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots12
4Corners5
12Fouls17
Shots
10Total Shots12
1On Target5
6Off Target4
3Blocked3
7Inside Box4
3Outside Box8
Passing
47%Possession53%
319Total Passes365
200Accurate Passes259
63%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls17
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Liga MX: Mazatlán 0–0 Necaxa

Mazatlán and Necaxa drew 0-0 in Liga MX on March 2, 2022.

Necaxa controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio de Mazatlán in Mazatlán.