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Mazatlán vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Mazatlán
Mazatlán
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
4/12/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio El Encanto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán36%
×Draw26%
Guadalajara Chivas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazatlán
1.30
Guadalajara Chivas
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 146 away

creates per match

Mazatlán
1.37
Guadalajara Chivas
1.18

allows per match

Mazatlán
1.47
Guadalajara Chivas
1.23

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par
Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw
63%
Mazatlán or Guadalajara Chivas
74%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
64%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+
16%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals
73%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
37%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
14%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
73%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
38%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)
49%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mazatlán scores more
36%
level
26%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
37%

Guadalajara Chivas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mazatlán vs Guadalajara Chivas

Mazatlán and Guadalajara Chivas drew 1-1 in Liga MX on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Encanto in Mazatlán.