Mazatlán 2–2 Club Queretaro: Result & Stats

Mazatlán

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Club Queretaro

10/5/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio El Encanto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán46%

×Draw25%

Club Queretaro29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MazatlánExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.19

Mazatlán

1.57

Club Queretaro

1.19

Mazatlán creates 32% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 137 away

1.37

creates per match

0.91

1.47

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Mazatlán

1.37

Club Queretaro

0.91

allows per match

Mazatlán

1.47

Club Queretaro

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw

71%

Mazatlán or Club Queretaro

75%

Draw or Club Queretaro

54%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+

23%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals

79%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

46%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

21%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

70%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

33%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

61%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mazatlán scores more

46%

level

25%

Club Queretaro scores more

29%

Mazatlán at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff