Mazatlán 2–1 Club Queretaro: Result & Stats

Mazatlán

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Club Queretaro

I. Moreno 52'

Camilo Sanvezzo 50'

J. Dos Santos 32'

10/23/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio de Mazatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán46%

×Draw25%

Club Queretaro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MazatlánExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.19

Mazatlán

1.57

Club Queretaro

1.19

Mazatlán creates 32% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 139 away

1.37

creates per match

0.91

1.47

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Mazatlán

1.37

Club Queretaro

0.91

allows per match

Mazatlán

1.47

Club Queretaro

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw

71%

Mazatlán or Club Queretaro

75%

Draw or Club Queretaro

54%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+

23%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals

79%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

46%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

21%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

70%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

33%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

61%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mazatlán scores more

46%

level

25%

Club Queretaro scores more

29%

Mazatlán at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mazatlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Padilla

Mazatlán · D

7.5

Match Events

32'

J. Dos Santos↳ P. Barrera

46'

Giovanni Augusto← B. Rubio

46'

S. Rodríguez← C. Vargas

50'

Camilo Sanvezzo↳ D. Amador

52'

I. Moreno↳ J. Padilla

57'

N. Sosa← J. Montero

65'

E. Sánchez← I. Moreno

72'

D. Cabrera← K. Escamilla

76'

J. Zavala← R. Meraz

76'

S. Arce← Camilo Sanvezzo

78'

A. Sanchez

85'

R. Torres← E. Vera

85'

J. Doldán← O. Mendoza

85'

R. Díaz← W. Aguerre

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MazatlánClub

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots14

4Corners6

15Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target1

3Off Target7

2Blocked6

5Inside Box3

4Outside Box11

Passing

54%Possession46%

414Total Passes338

330Accurate Passes263

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls15

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1