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Mazarrón FC vs Yeclano II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yeclano II
Yeclano II
9/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mazarrón FC53%
×Draw27%
Yeclano II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazarrón FC
1.46
Yeclano II
0.78

Mazarrón FC creates 87% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mazarrón FC
1.33
Yeclano II
0.53

allows per match

Mazarrón FC
1.02
Yeclano II
1.59

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par
Yeclano II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

Yeclano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw
80%
Mazarrón FC or Yeclano II
73%
Draw or Yeclano II
47%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
27%
Yeclano II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
77%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
43%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
18%
Yeclano II 1+ goals
54%
Yeclano II 2+ goals
18%
Yeclano II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
73%
Yeclano II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Yeclano II away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + Yeclano II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Yeclano II attack 0.53 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more
53%
level
27%
Yeclano II scores more
20%

Mazarrón FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mazarrón FC 0 – 1 Yeclano II

Yeclano II beat Mazarrón FC 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.