Mazarrón FC 1–1 UCAM Murcia II: Result & Stats

Mazarrón FC

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

UCAM Murcia II

12/20/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mazarrón FC37%

×Draw28%

UCAM Murcia II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mazarrón FCExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.18

Mazarrón FC

1.23

UCAM Murcia II

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 110 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

1.02

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Mazarrón FC

1.33

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

Mazarrón FC

1.02

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw

65%

Mazarrón FC or UCAM Murcia II

72%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

63%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+

16%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals

71%

Mazarrón FC 2+ goals

35%

Mazarrón FC 3+ goals

13%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

69%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

33%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)

52%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more

37%

level

28%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

35%

Mazarrón FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mazarrón FC vs UCAM Murcia II

Mazarrón FC and UCAM Murcia II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.

Mazarrón FC vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mazarrón FC vs UCAM Murcia II