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Mazarrón FC vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
10/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mazarrón FC34%
×Draw27%
Lorca Deportiva39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazarrón FC
1.20
Lorca Deportiva
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 80 away

creates per match

Mazarrón FC
1.33
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Mazarrón FC
1.02
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw
61%
Mazarrón FC or Lorca Deportiva
73%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
66%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
14%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
70%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
34%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
12%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
72%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
37%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
47%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more
34%
level
27%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
39%

Lorca Deportiva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Mazarrón FC 0–1 Lorca Deportiva

Lorca Deportiva beat Mazarrón FC 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.