Mazarrón FC 3–1 Lorca: Result & Stats

Mazarrón FC

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lorca

2/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mazarrón FC71%

×Draw18%

Lorca11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mazarrón FCExpected goals in this matchLorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.74

Mazarrón FC

2.20

Lorca

0.74

Mazarrón FC creates 197% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

0.47

1.02

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Mazarrón FC

1.33

Lorca

0.47

allows per match

Mazarrón FC

1.02

Lorca

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Lorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

Lorca →

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw

89%

Mazarrón FC or Lorca

82%

Draw or Lorca

29%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+

46%

Lorca wins by 2+

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals

89%

Mazarrón FC 2+ goals

64%

Mazarrón FC 3+ goals

37%

Lorca 1+ goals

52%

Lorca 2+ goals

17%

Lorca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)

86%

Lorca (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Lorca away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + Lorca defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.20

Lorca attack 0.47 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more

71%

level

18%

Lorca scores more

11%

Mazarrón FC at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff