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Mazarrón FC vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
F. Osterwalder 31'
1/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mazarrón FC40%
×Draw28%
La Unión Atlético32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazarrón FC
1.22
La Unión Atlético
1.06

Mazarrón FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mazarrón FC
1.33
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Mazarrón FC
1.02
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw
68%
Mazarrón FC or La Unión Atlético
72%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
60%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
17%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
70%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
34%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
12%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
65%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
29%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
56%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more
40%
level
28%
La Unión Atlético scores more
32%

Mazarrón FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Rubén← Cristian Muñoz
31'
F. Osterwalder
46'
Ketchup← Renato
46'
Nono← Juan Acosta
46'
Perico← Chema
66'
Miguel← Schuster
68'
Francisco Matallana← Salvador Ardil
76'
Juan Durán← Javi Vera
88'
Salva Ballesta← Miguel Ortuño
Mazarrón
La
G. Savu
Savu
Julio Algar
Algar
Cristian Muñoz
▼
Muñoz
Juan Acosta
▼
Acosta
Harri
Harri
Sergio Jiménez
Jiménez
Schuster
▼
Schuster
Paco Collados
Collados
Chema
▼
Chema
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
Renato
▼
Renato
Emilio Romero
Romero
Juande Martínez
Martínez
Edu Serrano
Serrano
Josema
Josema
Miguel Ortuño
▼
Ortuño
A. Simpara
Simpara
Javi Vera
▼
Vera
David Vera
Vera
Omar Saura
Saura
F. Osterwalder
⚽
Osterwald
Salvador Ardil
▼
Ardil
Sergio Sánchez
Manager: Sergio Sánchez
68'▲Francisco Matallana←▼Salvador Ardil
76'▲Juan Durán←▼Javi Vera
88'▲Salva Ballesta←▼Miguel Ortuño

Mazarrón FC substitutes

MatallanaDuránBallesta
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
9'▲Rubén←▼Cristian Muñoz
46'▲Ketchup←▼Renato
46'▲Nono←▼Juan Acosta
46'▲Perico←▼Chema
66'▲Miguel←▼Schuster

La Unión Atlético substitutes

RubénKetchupNonoPericoMiguel

Mazarrón FC 1 – 0 La Unión Atlético

Mazarrón FC beat La Unión Atlético 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 31, 2021.

Goals: F. Osterwalder (31').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.