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Mazarrón FC vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
11/10/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Mazarrón FC51%
×Draw26%
Huércal Overa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazarrón FC
1.50
Huércal Overa
0.91

Mazarrón FC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 47 away

creates per match

Mazarrón FC
1.33
Huércal Overa
0.79

allows per match

Mazarrón FC
1.02
Huércal Overa
1.68

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par
Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

Huércal Overa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw
77%
Mazarrón FC or Huércal Overa
74%
Draw or Huércal Overa
49%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
26%
Huércal Overa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
78%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
44%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
19%
Huércal Overa 1+ goals
60%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
23%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
69%
Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more
51%
level
26%
Huércal Overa scores more
23%

Mazarrón FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Mazarrón FC 2–1 Huércal Overa

Mazarrón FC beat Huércal Overa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.