Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huércal Overa vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
5/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 34Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Huércal Overa37%
×Draw28%
Mazarrón FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huércal Overa
1.19
Mazarrón FC
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 63 away

creates per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw
66%
Huércal Overa or Mazarrón FC
72%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
63%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+
16%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals
70%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
33%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
12%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
68%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
31%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
52%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huércal Overa scores more
37%
level
28%
Mazarrón FC scores more
34%

Huércal Overa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huércal Overa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huércal Overa vs Mazarrón FC

Mazarrón FC beat Huércal Overa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Hornillo in Huércal-Overa.