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Mazarrón FC vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
El Palmar
El Palmar
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mazarrón FC47%
×Draw26%
El Palmar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazarrón FC
1.46
El Palmar
1.02

Mazarrón FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mazarrón FC
1.33
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Mazarrón FC
1.02
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw
74%
Mazarrón FC or El Palmar
74%
Draw or El Palmar
53%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
23%
El Palmar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
77%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
43%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
18%
El Palmar 1+ goals
64%
El Palmar 2+ goals
27%
El Palmar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
64%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more
47%
level
26%
El Palmar scores more
26%

Mazarrón FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mazarrón FC vs El Palmar

Mazarrón FC beat El Palmar 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.