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Mazarrón FC vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
1/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Mazarrón FC45%
×Draw27%
Cartagena FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazarrón FC
1.43
Cartagena FC
1.06

Mazarrón FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 44 away

creates per match

Mazarrón FC
1.33
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

Mazarrón FC
1.02
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw
72%
Mazarrón FC or Cartagena FC
73%
Draw or Cartagena FC
55%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
22%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
76%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
42%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
17%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
65%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
29%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
62%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more
45%
level
27%
Cartagena FC scores more
28%

Mazarrón FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mazarrón FC vs Cartagena FC

Cartagena FC beat Mazarrón FC 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.