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Mazarrón FC vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
12/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 18Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mazarrón FC35%
×Draw29%
Atlético Pulpileño35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazarrón FC
1.09
Atlético Pulpileño
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 93 away

creates per match

Mazarrón FC
1.33
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Mazarrón FC
1.02
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazarrón FC ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mazarrón FC or draw
65%
Mazarrón FC or Atlético Pulpileño
71%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
65%

Winning margin

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
66%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
30%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
50%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazarrón FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazarrón FC attack 1.33 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mazarrón FC scores more
35%
level
29%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
35%

Mazarrón FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mazarrón FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Mazarrón FC 0–0 Atlético Pulpileño

Mazarrón FC and Atlético Pulpileño drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón in Mazarrón.