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Mayrhofen vs Völs — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Mayrhofen
Mayrhofen
FT
1 – 0
Völs
Völs
9/23/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 10Alpenstadion Mayrhofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mayrhofen53%
×Draw20%
Völs27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mayrhofen
2.29
Völs
1.59

Mayrhofen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Mayrhofen
2.87
Völs
1.46

allows per match

Mayrhofen
1.73
Völs
1.71

finishing

Mayrhofen+0.00on par
Völs+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mayrhofen ↓

Völs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Mayrhofen or draw
73%
Mayrhofen or Völs
80%
Draw or Völs
47%

Winning margin

Mayrhofen wins by 2+
32%
Völs wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mayrhofen 1+ goals
90%
Mayrhofen 2+ goals
66%
Mayrhofen 3+ goals
40%
Völs 1+ goals
80%
Völs 2+ goals
47%
Völs 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mayrhofen (draw refunded)
67%
Völs (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mayrhofen at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Völs away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.71 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mayrhofen attack 2.87 + Völs defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.29

Völs attack 1.46 + Mayrhofen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mayrhofen scores more
53%
level
20%
Völs scores more
27%

Mayrhofen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mayrhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Mayrhofen 1–0 Völs

Mayrhofen beat Völs 1-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on September 23, 2022.

The match was played at Alpenstadion Mayrhofen in Mayrhofen.