Mayrhofen 7–1 Union Innsbruck: Result & Stats

Mayrhofen

FT

7 – 1

Union Innsbruck

9/13/2022

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 4Alpenstadion Mayrhofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mayrhofen64%

×Draw17%

Union Innsbruck19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MayrhofenExpected goals in this matchUnion Innsbruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.59

Mayrhofen

2.92

Union Innsbruck

1.59

Mayrhofen creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

2.87

creates per match

1.45

1.73

allows per match

2.98

creates per match

Mayrhofen

2.87

Union Innsbruck

1.45

allows per match

Mayrhofen

1.73

Union Innsbruck

2.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mayrhofen+0.00on par

Union Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mayrhofen ↓

Union Innsbruck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Mayrhofen or draw

81%

Mayrhofen or Union Innsbruck

83%

Draw or Union Innsbruck

36%

Winning margin

Mayrhofen wins by 2+

44%

Union Innsbruck wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mayrhofen 1+ goals

94%

Mayrhofen 2+ goals

78%

Mayrhofen 3+ goals

55%

Union Innsbruck 1+ goals

80%

Union Innsbruck 2+ goals

47%

Union Innsbruck 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mayrhofen (draw refunded)

77%

Union Innsbruck (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mayrhofen at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Union Innsbruck away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.98 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mayrhofen attack 2.87 + Union Innsbruck defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.92

Union Innsbruck attack 1.45 + Mayrhofen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mayrhofen scores more

64%

level

17%

Union Innsbruck scores more

19%

Mayrhofen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mayrhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff