Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mayrhofen vs St. Johann in Tirol — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Mayrhofen
Mayrhofen
FT
3 – 2
St. Johann in Tirol
St. Johann in Tirol
6/2/2023Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 27Alpenstadion Mayrhofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mayrhofen48%
×Draw20%
St. Johann in Tirol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mayrhofen
2.24
St. Johann in Tirol
1.81

Mayrhofen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

creates per match

Mayrhofen
2.87
St. Johann in Tirol
1.89

allows per match

Mayrhofen
1.73
St. Johann in Tirol
1.61

finishing

Mayrhofen+0.00on par
St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mayrhofen ↓

St. Johann in Tirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Mayrhofen or draw
68%
Mayrhofen or St. Johann in Tirol
80%
Draw or St. Johann in Tirol
52%

Winning margin

Mayrhofen wins by 2+
28%
St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mayrhofen 1+ goals
89%
Mayrhofen 2+ goals
65%
Mayrhofen 3+ goals
38%
St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals
84%
St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals
54%
St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Mayrhofen (draw refunded)
60%
St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mayrhofen at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

St. Johann in Tirol away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mayrhofen attack 2.87 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.24

St. Johann in Tirol attack 1.89 + Mayrhofen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mayrhofen scores more
48%
level
20%
St. Johann in Tirol scores more
32%

Mayrhofen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mayrhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mayrhofen vs St. Johann in Tirol

Mayrhofen beat St. Johann in Tirol 3-2 in Landesliga - Tirol on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Alpenstadion Mayrhofen in Mayrhofen.