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Mayrhofen vs Mils — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Mayrhofen
Mayrhofen
FT
3 – 5
Mils
Mils
10/21/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 14Alpenstadion Mayrhofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mayrhofen56%
×Draw18%
Mils26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mayrhofen
2.71
Mils
1.82

Mayrhofen creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

creates per match

Mayrhofen
2.87
Mils
1.91

allows per match

Mayrhofen
1.73
Mils
2.54

finishing

Mayrhofen+0.00on par
Mils+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mayrhofen ↓

Mils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Mayrhofen or draw
74%
Mayrhofen or Mils
82%
Draw or Mils
44%

Winning margin

Mayrhofen wins by 2+
36%
Mils wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mayrhofen 1+ goals
93%
Mayrhofen 2+ goals
75%
Mayrhofen 3+ goals
50%
Mils 1+ goals
84%
Mils 2+ goals
54%
Mils 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Mayrhofen (draw refunded)
69%
Mils (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mayrhofen at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Mils away — creates 1.91, concedes 2.54 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mayrhofen attack 2.87 + Mils defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.71

Mils attack 1.91 + Mayrhofen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mayrhofen scores more
56%
level
18%
Mils scores more
26%

Mayrhofen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mayrhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mayrhofen vs Mils

Mils beat Mayrhofen 5-3 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 21, 2022.

The match was played at Alpenstadion Mayrhofen in Mayrhofen.