Mauritius W 1–1 Seychelles W: Result & Stats

Mauritius W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Seychelles W

12/8/2023

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2National Sports Complex Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mauritius W93%

×Draw5%

Seychelles W2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mauritius WExpected goals in this matchSeychelles W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.77

0.78

Mauritius W

4.77

Seychelles W

0.78

Mauritius W creates 512% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.75

creates per match

0.56

1.00

allows per match

7.78

creates per match

Mauritius W

1.75

Seychelles W

0.56

allows per match

Mauritius W

1.00

Seychelles W

7.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mauritius W+0.00on par

Seychelles W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauritius W ↓

Seychelles W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–14%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Mauritius W or draw

98%

Mauritius W or Seychelles W

95%

Draw or Seychelles W

7%

Winning margin

Mauritius W wins by 2+

82%

Seychelles W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Mauritius W 1+ goals

99%

Mauritius W 2+ goals

94%

Mauritius W 3+ goals

82%

Seychelles W 1+ goals

54%

Seychelles W 2+ goals

18%

Seychelles W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mauritius W (draw refunded)

98%

Seychelles W (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauritius W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Seychelles W away — creates 0.56, concedes 7.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauritius W attack 1.75 + Seychelles W defence 7.78 → ÷2 → 4.77

Seychelles W attack 0.56 + Mauritius W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Mauritius W scores more

93%

level

5%

Seychelles W scores more

2%

Mauritius W at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Mauritius W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff