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Mauritius vs Djibouti — Friendlies 2026

Mauritius
Mauritius
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Djibouti
Djibouti
6/14/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mauritius69%
×Draw17%
Djibouti13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauritius
2.48
Djibouti
1.00

Mauritius creates 148% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mauritius
1.20
Djibouti
1.00

allows per match

Mauritius
1.00
Djibouti
3.75

finishing

Mauritius+0.00on par
Djibouti+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauritius ↓

Djibouti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Mauritius or draw
87%
Mauritius or Djibouti
83%
Draw or Djibouti
31%

Winning margin

Mauritius wins by 2+
47%
Djibouti wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mauritius 1+ goals
92%
Mauritius 2+ goals
70%
Mauritius 3+ goals
44%
Djibouti 1+ goals
63%
Djibouti 2+ goals
26%
Djibouti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mauritius (draw refunded)
84%
Djibouti (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauritius at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Djibouti away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauritius attack 1.20 + Djibouti defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.48

Djibouti attack 1.00 + Mauritius defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Mauritius scores more
69%
level
17%
Djibouti scores more
13%

Mauritius at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Mauritius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mauritius vs Djibouti

Djibouti beat Mauritius 3-1 in Friendlies on June 14, 2023.