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Mauritania vs Central African Republic — Friendlies 2026

Mauritania
Mauritania
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Central African Republic
Central African Republic
6/6/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mauritania63%
×Draw23%
Central African Republic15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauritania
1.79
Central African Republic
0.73

Mauritania creates 145% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mauritania
1.38
Central African Republic
1.00

allows per match

Mauritania
0.46
Central African Republic
2.20

finishing

Mauritania+0.00on par
Central African Republic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauritania ↓

Central African Republic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mauritania or draw
85%
Mauritania or Central African Republic
77%
Draw or Central African Republic
37%

Winning margin

Mauritania wins by 2+
36%
Central African Republic wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mauritania 1+ goals
83%
Mauritania 2+ goals
53%
Mauritania 3+ goals
26%
Central African Republic 1+ goals
52%
Central African Republic 2+ goals
17%
Central African Republic 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mauritania (draw refunded)
81%
Central African Republic (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauritania at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Central African Republic away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauritania attack 1.38 + Central African Republic defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Central African Republic attack 1.00 + Mauritania defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mauritania scores more
63%
level
23%
Central African Republic scores more
15%

Mauritania at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mauritania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Mauritania 2–1 Central African Republic

Mauritania beat Central African Republic 2-1 in Friendlies on June 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.