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Mauerwerk vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Mauerwerk
Mauerwerk
CANC
15:00
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
3/21/2021Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 15HMI Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mauerwerk37%
×Draw24%
Team Wiener Linien40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauerwerk
1.56
Team Wiener Linien
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mauerwerk
1.52
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Mauerwerk
1.82
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Mauerwerk+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauerwerk ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mauerwerk or draw
60%
Mauerwerk or Team Wiener Linien
76%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
63%

Winning margin

Mauerwerk wins by 2+
18%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mauerwerk 1+ goals
79%
Mauerwerk 2+ goals
46%
Mauerwerk 3+ goals
21%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
80%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
48%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mauerwerk (draw refunded)
48%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauerwerk at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.82 · 85 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauerwerk attack 1.52 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Mauerwerk defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mauerwerk scores more
37%
level
24%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
40%

Team Wiener Linien at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Team Wiener Linien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mauerwerk host Team Wiener Linien

March 21, 2021: Mauerwerk take on Team Wiener Linien in Regionalliga - Ost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mauerwerk host Team Wiener Linien at HMI Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.