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Mauerwerk vs Schwechat — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Mauerwerk
Mauerwerk
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Schwechat
Schwechat
8/15/2025Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 1Polizei Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mauerwerk28%
×Draw21%
Schwechat51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauerwerk
1.48
Schwechat
2.05

Schwechat creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mauerwerk
1.33
Schwechat
1.60

allows per match

Mauerwerk
2.50
Schwechat
1.63

finishing

Mauerwerk+0.00on par
Schwechat+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauerwerk ↓

Schwechat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Mauerwerk or draw
49%
Mauerwerk or Schwechat
79%
Draw or Schwechat
72%

Winning margin

Mauerwerk wins by 2+
13%
Schwechat wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Mauerwerk 1+ goals
77%
Mauerwerk 2+ goals
43%
Mauerwerk 3+ goals
19%
Schwechat 1+ goals
87%
Schwechat 2+ goals
61%
Schwechat 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Mauerwerk (draw refunded)
36%
Schwechat (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauerwerk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Schwechat away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauerwerk attack 1.33 + Schwechat defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Schwechat attack 1.60 + Mauerwerk defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mauerwerk scores more
28%
level
21%
Schwechat scores more
51%

Schwechat at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Schwechat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mauerwerk vs Schwechat

Mauerwerk beat Schwechat 4-2 in Landesliga - Wien on August 15, 2025.

The match was played at Polizei Sportanlage in Wien.