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Mauaense vs Sao Carlos — Paulista Série B 2026

Mauaense
Mauaense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
7/27/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mauaense55%
×Draw27%
Sao Carlos19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauaense
1.47
Sao Carlos
0.73

Mauaense creates 101% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mauaense
1.50
Sao Carlos
0.61

allows per match

Mauaense
0.85
Sao Carlos
1.44

finishing

Mauaense+0.00on par
Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 62Over: 3862%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauaense ↓

Sao Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mauaense or draw
81%
Mauaense or Sao Carlos
73%
Draw or Sao Carlos
45%

Winning margin

Mauaense wins by 2+
28%
Sao Carlos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mauaense 1+ goals
77%
Mauaense 2+ goals
43%
Mauaense 3+ goals
18%
Sao Carlos 1+ goals
52%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
17%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mauaense (draw refunded)
75%
Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauaense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Sao Carlos away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauaense attack 1.50 + Sao Carlos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sao Carlos attack 0.61 + Mauaense defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mauaense scores more
55%
level
27%
Sao Carlos scores more
19%

Mauaense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mauaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Mauaense 0–0 Sao Carlos

Mauaense and Sao Carlos drew 0-0 in Paulista Série B on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.