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Mauaense vs Independente SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Mauaense
Mauaense
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Independente SP
Independente SP
Unknown 9'
Unknown 68', 32', 29'
8/2/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mauaense37%
×Draw27%
Independente SP37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauaense
1.29
Independente SP
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mauaense
1.50
Independente SP
1.73

allows per match

Mauaense
0.85
Independente SP
1.07

finishing

Mauaense+0.00on par
Independente SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauaense ↓

Independente SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mauaense or draw
63%
Mauaense or Independente SP
73%
Draw or Independente SP
63%

Winning margin

Mauaense wins by 2+
16%
Independente SP wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mauaense 1+ goals
72%
Mauaense 2+ goals
37%
Mauaense 3+ goals
14%
Independente SP 1+ goals
72%
Independente SP 2+ goals
37%
Independente SP 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mauaense (draw refunded)
50%
Independente SP (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauaense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Independente SP away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauaense attack 1.50 + Independente SP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Independente SP attack 1.73 + Mauaense defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mauaense scores more
37%
level
27%
Independente SP scores more
37%

Mauaense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mauaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
29'
32'
68'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mauaense vs Independente SP

Independente SP beat Mauaense 3-1 in Paulista Série B on August 2, 2025.

Goals: ? (9', 29', 32', 68').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.