Mauaense U20 1–2 Portuguesa Santista U20

Mauaense U20

FT

1 – 2

Portuguesa Santista U20

4/19/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mauaense U2046%

×Draw23%

Portuguesa Santista U2031%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mauaense U20Expected goals in this matchPortuguesa Santista U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.40

Mauaense U20

1.76

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.40

Mauaense U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.80

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Mauaense U20

1.00

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.00

allows per match

Mauaense U20

1.80

Portuguesa Santista U20

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mauaense U20+0.00on par

Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauaense U20 ↓

Portuguesa Santista U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Mauaense U20 or draw

69%

Mauaense U20 or Portuguesa Santista U20

77%

Draw or Portuguesa Santista U20

54%

Winning margin

Mauaense U20 wins by 2+

25%

Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mauaense U20 1+ goals

83%

Mauaense U20 2+ goals

52%

Mauaense U20 3+ goals

26%

Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals

75%

Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals

41%

Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mauaense U20 (draw refunded)

60%

Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauaense U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Portuguesa Santista U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauaense U20 attack 1.00 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.76

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.00 + Mauaense U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mauaense U20 scores more

46%

level

23%

Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more

31%

Mauaense U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mauaense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff