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Mauaense U20 vs Mauá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mauaense U20
Mauaense U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mauá U20
Mauá U20
Unknown 63'
Unknown 54', 14'
5/17/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mauaense U2041%
×Draw26%
Mauá U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauaense U20
1.39
Mauá U20
1.21

Mauaense U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mauaense U20
1.00
Mauá U20
0.61

allows per match

Mauaense U20
1.80
Mauá U20
1.78

finishing

Mauaense U20+0.00on par
Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauaense U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mauaense U20 or draw
67%
Mauaense U20 or Mauá U20
74%
Draw or Mauá U20
59%

Winning margin

Mauaense U20 wins by 2+
19%
Mauá U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mauaense U20 1+ goals
75%
Mauaense U20 2+ goals
40%
Mauaense U20 3+ goals
16%
Mauá U20 1+ goals
70%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
34%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mauaense U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauaense U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauaense U20 attack 1.00 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + Mauaense U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mauaense U20 scores more
41%
level
26%
Mauá U20 scores more
33%

Mauaense U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mauaense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
54'
63'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mauaense U20 vs Mauá U20

Mauá U20 beat Mauaense U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2024.

Goals: ? (14', 54', 63').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.