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Maua vs Tupa — Paulista Série B 2026

Maua
Maua
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tupa
Tupa
Unknown 86', 24'
Unknown 65', 57'
7/13/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Maua44%
×Draw25%
Tupa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maua
1.52
Tupa
1.21

Maua creates 26% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

creates per match

Maua
1.36
Tupa
1.47

allows per match

Maua
0.95
Tupa
1.68

finishing

Maua+0.00on par
Tupa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maua ↓

Tupa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Maua or draw
70%
Maua or Tupa
75%
Draw or Tupa
56%

Winning margin

Maua wins by 2+
22%
Tupa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maua 1+ goals
78%
Maua 2+ goals
45%
Maua 3+ goals
20%
Tupa 1+ goals
70%
Tupa 2+ goals
34%
Tupa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Maua (draw refunded)
59%
Tupa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maua at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Tupa away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maua attack 1.36 + Tupa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tupa attack 1.47 + Maua defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maua scores more
44%
level
25%
Tupa scores more
30%

Maua at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
57'
65'
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maua 2 – 2 Tupa

Maua and Tupa drew 2-2 in Paulista Série B on July 13, 2024.

Goals: ? (24', 57', 65', 86').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.