Mauá U20 0–4 Santos U20: Result & Stats

Mauá U20

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Santos U20

Joao Victor 64'

Rodrigo 63'

Felipe Laurindo 27'

E. Monteiro 19'

5/26/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mauá U2032%

×Draw27%

Santos U2042%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mauá U20Expected goals in this matchSantos U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.35

Mauá U20

1.14

Santos U20

1.35

Santos U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 25 away

1.47

creates per match

1.64

1.06

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Mauá U20

1.47

Santos U20

1.64

allows per match

Mauá U20

1.06

Santos U20

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mauá U20+0.00on par

Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauá U20 ↓

Santos U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mauá U20 or draw

58%

Mauá U20 or Santos U20

73%

Draw or Santos U20

68%

Winning margin

Mauá U20 wins by 2+

13%

Santos U20 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Mauá U20 1+ goals

68%

Mauá U20 2+ goals

32%

Mauá U20 3+ goals

11%

Santos U20 1+ goals

74%

Santos U20 2+ goals

39%

Santos U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Santos U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauá U20 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauá U20 attack 1.47 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.14

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + Mauá U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mauá U20 scores more

32%

level

27%

Santos U20 scores more

42%

Santos U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

E. Monteiro

27'

Felipe Laurindo

63'

Rodrigo

64'

Joao Victor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff