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Mauá U20 vs Portuguesa Santista U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mauá U20
Mauá U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Portuguesa Santista U20
Portuguesa Santista U20
Carlos Gabriel 45+3'
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mauá U2060%
×Draw21%
Portuguesa Santista U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauá U20
2.00
Portuguesa Santista U20
1.03

Mauá U20 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Mauá U20
1.47
Portuguesa Santista U20
1.00

allows per match

Mauá U20
1.06
Portuguesa Santista U20
2.52

finishing

Mauá U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauá U20 ↓

Portuguesa Santista U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mauá U20 or draw
81%
Mauá U20 or Portuguesa Santista U20
79%
Draw or Portuguesa Santista U20
40%

Winning margin

Mauá U20 wins by 2+
36%
Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mauá U20 1+ goals
86%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
59%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
32%
Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals
64%
Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals
28%
Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
76%
Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauá U20 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Portuguesa Santista U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauá U20 attack 1.47 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.00

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.00 + Mauá U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mauá U20 scores more
60%
level
21%
Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more
19%

Mauá U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mauá U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'
Carlos Gabriel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Mauá U20 0–1 Portuguesa Santista U20

Portuguesa Santista U20 beat Mauá U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

Goals: Carlos Gabriel (45+3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.