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Mauá U20 vs Guarani U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mauá U20
Mauá U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guarani U20
Guarani U20
Luiz Guilherme 68'
8/6/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mauá U2034%
×Draw28%
Guarani U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauá U20
1.15
Guarani U20
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

creates per match

Mauá U20
1.47
Guarani U20
1.45

allows per match

Mauá U20
1.06
Guarani U20
0.82

finishing

Mauá U20+0.00on par
Guarani U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauá U20 ↓

Guarani U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mauá U20 or draw
61%
Mauá U20 or Guarani U20
72%
Draw or Guarani U20
66%

Winning margin

Mauá U20 wins by 2+
14%
Guarani U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mauá U20 1+ goals
68%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
32%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
11%
Guarani U20 1+ goals
71%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
36%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauá U20 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Guarani U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauá U20 attack 1.47 + Guarani U20 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Guarani U20 attack 1.45 + Mauá U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mauá U20 scores more
34%
level
28%
Guarani U20 scores more
39%

Guarani U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
Luiz Guilherme

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mauá U20 vs Guarani U20

Guarani U20 beat Mauá U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on August 6, 2025.

Goals: Luiz Guilherme (68').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.