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Mauá U20 vs Bandeirante U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mauá U20
Mauá U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
Andrey 90+5' (pen)
J. Vitor 45'
Luan 45+3'
A. Bamba 40'
5/16/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mauá U2053%
×Draw24%
Bandeirante U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauá U20
1.71
Bandeirante U20
1.03

Mauá U20 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mauá U20
1.47
Bandeirante U20
1.00

allows per match

Mauá U20
1.06
Bandeirante U20
1.94

finishing

Mauá U20+0.00on par
Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauá U20 ↓

Bandeirante U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mauá U20 or draw
77%
Mauá U20 or Bandeirante U20
76%
Draw or Bandeirante U20
47%

Winning margin

Mauá U20 wins by 2+
29%
Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mauá U20 1+ goals
82%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
51%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
24%
Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
64%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
28%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
70%
Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauá U20 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Bandeirante U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauá U20 attack 1.47 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.00 + Mauá U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mauá U20 scores more
53%
level
24%
Bandeirante U20 scores more
23%

Mauá U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mauá U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
A. Bamba
45'
J. Vitor
45+3'
Luan
90+5'
AndreyPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Mauá U20 2–2 Bandeirante U20

Mauá U20 and Bandeirante U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Bamba (40'), J. Vitor (45'), Luan (45+3'), Andrey (90+5' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.