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Mauá U20 vs Água Santa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mauá U20
Mauá U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
L. H. Siqueira Valente 20'
A. Qualhareli 61'
6/12/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mauá U2051%
×Draw24%
Água Santa U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauá U20
1.73
Água Santa U20
1.13

Mauá U20 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mauá U20
1.47
Água Santa U20
1.19

allows per match

Mauá U20
1.06
Água Santa U20
2.00

finishing

Mauá U20+0.00on par
Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauá U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mauá U20 or draw
75%
Mauá U20 or Água Santa U20
76%
Draw or Água Santa U20
49%

Winning margin

Mauá U20 wins by 2+
28%
Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mauá U20 1+ goals
82%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
52%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
25%
Água Santa U20 1+ goals
68%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
31%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauá U20 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauá U20 attack 1.47 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Mauá U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mauá U20 scores more
51%
level
24%
Água Santa U20 scores more
25%

Mauá U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mauá U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
L. H. Siqueira Valente
61'
A. Qualhareli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mauá U20 vs Água Santa U20

Mauá U20 and Água Santa U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 12, 2026.

Goals: L. H. Siqueira Valente (20'), A. Qualhareli (61').