Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mauá U20 vs AC Guaratinguetá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Mauá U20
Mauá U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AC Guaratinguetá U20
AC Guaratinguetá U20
Unknown 37'
5/30/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mauá U2059%
×Draw24%
AC Guaratinguetá U2017%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauá U20
1.67
AC Guaratinguetá U20
0.78

Mauá U20 creates 114% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mauá U20
1.47
AC Guaratinguetá U20
0.50

allows per match

Mauá U20
1.06
AC Guaratinguetá U20
1.88

finishing

Mauá U20+0.00on par
AC Guaratinguetá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauá U20 ↓

AC Guaratinguetá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mauá U20 or draw
83%
Mauá U20 or AC Guaratinguetá U20
76%
Draw or AC Guaratinguetá U20
41%

Winning margin

Mauá U20 wins by 2+
32%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mauá U20 1+ goals
81%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
50%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
23%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 1+ goals
54%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 2+ goals
18%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
77%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauá U20 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

AC Guaratinguetá U20 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauá U20 attack 1.47 + AC Guaratinguetá U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

AC Guaratinguetá U20 attack 0.50 + Mauá U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mauá U20 scores more
59%
level
24%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 scores more
17%

Mauá U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mauá U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Mauá U20 1–0 AC Guaratinguetá U20

Mauá U20 beat AC Guaratinguetá U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 30, 2025.

Goals: ? (37').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.