Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mattersburg II vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Mattersburg II
Mattersburg II
FT
2 – 1
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
5/17/2019Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 27Fußballakademie Burgenland (Mattersburg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mattersburg II45%
×Draw23%
Team Wiener Linien32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mattersburg II
1.75
Team Wiener Linien
1.44

Mattersburg II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mattersburg II
1.88
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Mattersburg II
1.46
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Mattersburg II+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mattersburg II ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mattersburg II or draw
68%
Mattersburg II or Team Wiener Linien
77%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
55%

Winning margin

Mattersburg II wins by 2+
24%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mattersburg II 1+ goals
83%
Mattersburg II 2+ goals
52%
Mattersburg II 3+ goals
25%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
76%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
42%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mattersburg II (draw refunded)
59%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mattersburg II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mattersburg II attack 1.88 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Mattersburg II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mattersburg II scores more
45%
level
23%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
32%

Mattersburg II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mattersburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mattersburg II vs Team Wiener Linien

Mattersburg II beat Team Wiener Linien 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on May 17, 2019.

The match was played at Fußballakademie Burgenland (Mattersburg).