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Mattersburg II vs Bruck/Leitha — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Mattersburg II
Mattersburg II
FT
2 – 4
Bruck/Leitha
Bruck/Leitha
10/26/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 13Fußballakademie Burgenland (Mattersburg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mattersburg II55%
×Draw22%
Bruck/Leitha24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mattersburg II
2.02
Bruck/Leitha
1.27

Mattersburg II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 54 away

creates per match

Mattersburg II
1.88
Bruck/Leitha
1.09

allows per match

Mattersburg II
1.46
Bruck/Leitha
2.17

finishing

Mattersburg II+0.00on par
Bruck/Leitha+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mattersburg II ↓

Bruck/Leitha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mattersburg II or draw
76%
Mattersburg II or Bruck/Leitha
78%
Draw or Bruck/Leitha
45%

Winning margin

Mattersburg II wins by 2+
32%
Bruck/Leitha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mattersburg II 1+ goals
87%
Mattersburg II 2+ goals
60%
Mattersburg II 3+ goals
33%
Bruck/Leitha 1+ goals
72%
Bruck/Leitha 2+ goals
36%
Bruck/Leitha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mattersburg II (draw refunded)
70%
Bruck/Leitha (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mattersburg II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Bruck/Leitha away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mattersburg II attack 1.88 + Bruck/Leitha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.02

Bruck/Leitha attack 1.09 + Mattersburg II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mattersburg II scores more
55%
level
22%
Bruck/Leitha scores more
24%

Mattersburg II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mattersburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Mattersburg II 2–4 Bruck/Leitha

Bruck/Leitha beat Mattersburg II 4-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 26, 2018.

The match was played at Fußballakademie Burgenland (Mattersburg).