Matsumoto Yamaga vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 69+ matches
Matsumoto Yamaga32%
Yokohama FC40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Yokohama FC creates 14% more chances
Season form · 69 home / 88 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Matsumoto Yamaga ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Matsumoto Yamaga at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches
Yokohama FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 88 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.22 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11
Yokohama FC attack 1.40 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Yokohama FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Matsumoto Yamaga
Oita TrinitaYokohama FC
Machida Zelvia
Omiya Ardija
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Renofa Yamaguchi
Ventforet Kofu
Mito Hollyhock
Tokushima Vortis
Montedio Yamagata
Kanazawa
JEF United Chiba
Fagiano Okayama
Albirex Niigata
Tochigi SC
Ehime FC
Kyoto Sanga
FC Gifu
Roasso Kumamoto
Kamatamare SanukiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Matsumoto Yamaga host Yokohama FC on Saturday, 8 July 2017 at 09:30. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
Matsumoto Yamaga 3 – 1 Yokohama FC
Matsumoto Yamaga beat Yokohama FC 3-1 in J2 League on July 8, 2017.
Goals: H. Takasaki (42', 45+1'), Y. Hashiuchi (61'), A. Laajab (89' pen).
The match was played at Naganoken Matsumotodaira Wide Area Park General Stadium (Matsumoto).