Matsumoto Yamaga vs V-varen Nagasaki — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 68+ matches
Matsumoto Yamaga35%
V-varen Nagasaki38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 68 home / 142 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Matsumoto Yamaga ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Matsumoto Yamaga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches
V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.26 · 142 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.19 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23
V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.43 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
V-varen Nagasaki at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
JEF United ChibaV-varen Nagasaki
Iwaki
Montedio Yamagata
Tokushima Vortis
Jubilo Iwata
Mito Hollyhock
Imabari
Omiya Ardija
Sagan Tosu
Consadole Sapporo
Vegalta Sendai
Renofa Yamaguchi
Blaublitz Akita
Roasso Kumamoto
Ventforet Kofu
Kataller Toyama
Fujieda MYFC
Oita Trinita
Ehime FC
Yokohama FC
Biwako Shiga
Kagoshima United
Vanraure Hachinohe
Kanazawa
Tochigi SCMatsumoto Yamaga
Tochigi City
Kamatamare Sanuki
Osaka
FC Ryukyu
Gainare Tottori
Kitakyushu
Kochi United
Parceiro NaganoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Matsumoto Yamaga host V-varen Nagasaki on Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 06:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Matsumoto Yamaga vs V-varen Nagasaki
Matsumoto Yamaga and V-varen Nagasaki drew 2-2 in J2 League on September 19, 2020.
Goals: J. Hata (4'), Luan (64'), T. Sakano (76', 78').
The match was played at Sunpro Alwin Stadium in Matsumoto.