Matsumoto Yamaga 3–1 Tokushima Vortis

Matsumoto Yamaga

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Tokushima Vortis

H. Takasaki 73'

K. Kudo 45+1', 40'

R. Yamasaki 16'

9/2/2017

J2 League · Round 31Naganoken Matsumotodaira Wide Area Park General Stadium (Matsumoto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Matsumoto Yamaga34%

×Draw29%

Tokushima Vortis37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Matsumoto YamagaExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.16

Matsumoto Yamaga

1.11

Tokushima Vortis

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 149 away

1.22

creates per match

1.19

1.13

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Matsumoto Yamaga

1.22

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Matsumoto Yamaga

1.13

Tokushima Vortis

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Matsumoto Yamaga+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matsumoto Yamaga ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Matsumoto Yamaga or draw

63%

Matsumoto Yamaga or Tokushima Vortis

71%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

66%

Winning margin

Matsumoto Yamaga wins by 2+

14%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Matsumoto Yamaga 1+ goals

67%

Matsumoto Yamaga 2+ goals

30%

Matsumoto Yamaga 3+ goals

10%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

69%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

32%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Matsumoto Yamaga (draw refunded)

48%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matsumoto Yamaga at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.22 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Matsumoto Yamaga scores more

34%

level

29%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

37%

Tokushima Vortis at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

40'

45+1'

52'

73'

79'

79'

Y. Konishi← N. Vasiljević

85'

K. Mishima← H. Takasaki

85'

T. Ishihara← K. Kudo

90+4'

M. Suzuki← K. Mishima

Matsumoto

Tokushima

31

Hasegawa

2

▼

Vasiljevi

4

Fujiwara

27

Mawatari

15

▼

Izutsu

14

▼

26

3

16

17

⚽

23

16

3

18

31

4

29

10

⚽2

▼

Kudo

14

Paulinho

5

Iwama

9

⚽

▼

Takasaki

19

Yamamoto

Manager: Y. Sorimachi

85'▲K. Mishima←▼H. Takasaki

85'▲T. Ishihara←▼K. Kudo

90+4'▲M. Suzuki←▼K. Mishima

Matsumoto Yamaga substitutes

11Mishima20Ishihara50Suzuki1Fujishima6Ando7Takei13Goto

Manager: Ricardo Rodríguez

52'▲Y. Uchida←▼T. Hamada

79'▲J. Osaki←▼R. Izutsu

79'▲Y. Konishi←▼N. Vasiljević

Tokushima Vortis substitutes

19Uchida10Osaki32Konishi5Ishii13Matsumura21Kajikawa34Kiyohara