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Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Matsumoto Yamaga
Matsumoto Yamaga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
9/15/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 33Naganoken Matsumotodaira Wide Area Park General Stadium (Matsumoto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Matsumoto Yamaga44%
×Draw27%
Renofa Yamaguchi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.36
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.05

Matsumoto Yamaga creates 30% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 168 away

creates per match

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.22
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.13
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Matsumoto Yamaga+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matsumoto Yamaga ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Matsumoto Yamaga or draw
71%
Matsumoto Yamaga or Renofa Yamaguchi
73%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
56%

Winning margin

Matsumoto Yamaga wins by 2+
21%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Matsumoto Yamaga 1+ goals
74%
Matsumoto Yamaga 2+ goals
39%
Matsumoto Yamaga 3+ goals
16%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
65%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
28%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Matsumoto Yamaga (draw refunded)
60%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matsumoto Yamaga at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.22 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Matsumoto Yamaga scores more
44%
level
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
29%

Matsumoto Yamaga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Matsumoto Yamaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Matsumoto Yamaga 0–0 Renofa Yamaguchi

Matsumoto Yamaga and Renofa Yamaguchi drew 0-0 in J2 League on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Naganoken Matsumotodaira Wide Area Park General Stadium (Matsumoto).