Matsumoto Yamaga vs Montedio Yamagata — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 68+ matches
Matsumoto Yamaga35%
Montedio Yamagata37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 68 home / 167 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Matsumoto Yamaga ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Matsumoto Yamaga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches
Montedio Yamagata away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.14 · 167 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.19 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17
Montedio Yamagata attack 1.25 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Montedio Yamagata at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Matsumoto Yamaga host Montedio Yamagata on Saturday, 5 September 2020 at 09:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
Matsumoto Yamaga 1 – 0 Montedio Yamagata
Matsumoto Yamaga beat Montedio Yamagata 1-0 in J2 League on September 5, 2020.
Goals: Serginho (76' pen).
The match was played at Sunpro Alwin Stadium in Matsumoto.