Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kawasaki Frontale — J1 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Matsumoto Yamaga24%
Kawasaki Frontale49%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kawasaki Frontale creates 56% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 148 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Matsumoto Yamaga ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Matsumoto Yamaga at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches
Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.16 · 148 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Matsumoto Yamaga attack 0.72 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94
Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.72 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.47
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Kawasaki Frontale at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
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Yokohama F. Marinos
Urawa
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya GrampusKawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
Tokyo Verdy
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Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki
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Albirex NiigataIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Matsumoto Yamaga host Kawasaki Frontale on Sunday, 31 March 2019 at 05:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale beat Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 in J1 League on March 31, 2019.
Goals: K. Chinen (44'), H. Abe (64').
Kawasaki Frontale controlled possession (71%) and registered 17 shots to 5.
The match was played at Matsumotodaira Football Stadium in Matsumoto.